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UK Met Office S5
Prob. most lik. tercile
Prob. above average
Prob. lower tercile
Prob. upper tercile
Prob. lower quintile
Prob. upper quintile
Brier Skill Score negative or positive anom.
Brier Skill Score lower tercile
Brier Skill Score upper tercile
Brier Skill Score lower quintile
Brier Skill Score upper quintile
Ranked Probability Skill Score tercile cat.
Ranked Probability Skill Score quintile cat.
Gerrity Score tercile cat.
ROC Skill Score negative or positive anom.
ROC Skill Score lower tercile
ROC Skill Score upper tercile
ROC Skill Score lower quintile
ROC Skill Score upper quintile
Reliability diagram negative or positive anom.
Reliability diagram lower tercile
Reliability diagram upper tercile
Reliability diagram lower quintile
Reliability diagram upper quintile
ROC plot negative or positive anom.
ROC plot lower tercile
ROC plot upper tercile
ROC plot lower quintile
ROC plot upper quintile
Previous EUROBRISA operational System (operational until Jun 2015)
Current EUROBRISA operational System
Key idea: To improve seasonal forecasts in South America, a region where there is seasonal forecast skill and useful value
Strengthen collaboration and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American seasonal forecasters
Produce improved well-calibrated real-time probabilistic seasonal forecasts for South America
Develop real-time forecast products for non-profitable governmental use (e.g. reservoir management, hydropower production, and agriculture).
EUROBRISA project proposal
approved by ECMWF council in June 2005:
see page 5 of
ECMWF newsletter No. 104
Leverhulme research network proposal
EUROBRISA Integrated System Talk
in Portuguese - given at CPTEC and INMET, May 2005
Summary and Video
talk given at CPTEC
given at CPTEC-INMET-IRI workshop, November 2006
presented at WCRP workshop on seasonal prediction, Barcelona, 4-7 June 2007
EUROBRISA forecast system updated...
Extended hindcast period for UK Met Office GloSea 5 GC2 coupled model seasonal forecasts...
Meteo-France System 5 coupled model seasonal forecasts become available...
South American seasonal forecasts
National Meteorological Services
CPC Regional Climate Maps
Please contact either
Dr. Caio A. S. Coelho
Prof. David B. Stephenson
- National Institute of Space Research
- Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research
© Copyright 2016 CPTEC/INPE
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